By Ken Fisher
Reading the mainstream media this weekend, you'd believe that Bill Gates announced that Windows 7 will be released to retail in 2009. The only problem is, he didn't say anything of the sort. What Gates said merely confirmed what we've all known all along: that Windows 7 is being developed on a three-year timeframe.
First, the quote that started it all. It's perfect "Chairman"-speak because it doesn't really tell you anything, but it gets the press and blogosphere hot and bothered, and hey, free press is great. Are you ready for the quote that rocked the tech world, leading scores of publications to say that Windows 7 is coming in 2009 and that Microsoft has turned up the heat on its development plans? Prepare thyself:
"Sometime in the next year or so we will have a new version [of Windows]," said Mr. Gates.
That's it.
In a world of tech reporting where one's memory apparently stretches back not to the great Longhorn reboot but instead no further than one's breakfast, Mr. Gates' totally vague comment morphs into a product launch announcement, at least once the blogosphere gets ahold of it.
Nevermind the fact that Mr. Gates has been wrong before about launch timeframes. Nevermind the fact that "the next year or so" does not equate to "next year," at least not in the English language. And nevermind that Microsoft's public relations wing says that Gates' comments do not indicate a change in the development process at Windows. The above quote is surely a sign that we'll see Windows 7 in retail in a year's time. (And if you believe that, I've got a patent on the semi-colon key I'll sell ya.)
Choose your own release adventure: the beta clocker
Gates' comment came at an annual meeting in Miami of the Inter-American Development Bank on Friday. Microsoft has previously and more than once said that "We are currently in the planning stages for Windows 7 and development is scoped to three years from Windows Vista Consumer [general availability]. The specific release date will be determined once the company meets its quality bar for release." Nothing has changed.
Those writers out pimping the idea that Windows 7 will ship in 2009 clearly haven't seen any of the currently leaked builds, nor have they paid any attention to Microsoft's typical development cycles. It took an entire year to go from beta 1 to gold master for Windows XP, and it took 18 months to go from Vista beta 1 to gold master. The UI on Windows 7 hasn't been finalized, or even significantly developed from what we can see: currently Windows 7 leaks look almost exactly like Vista. The beta program hasn't fired up, either. Microsoft has, at most, 3 quarters of 2009 left in its "window," assuming the beta process started tomorrow (and it won't).
Yes, Windows 7 is coming. Yes, beta builds will probably come sometime in 2009, perhaps even sometime later this year. But for those of you jonesing for a new release of Windows, there's nothing new here to hang your hopes on. We're likely closer to two years away from a release, not one.
Addendum: many are making a big deal out of the extension of availability of Windows XP for low cost laptops only. That extension is to mid 2010, or one year after the release of Windows 7, whichever is later. IDG speculates that this "implies" that Microsoft is aiming for mid-2009 with Windows 7, with the assumption being that Microsoft wouldn't promise support for a period of time unless it new that it could effectively cap it with a release. This ignores what ISPs need: a long period of overlap between new and legacy OSes in order to segment offerings and transition a new OS in. All this agreement shows is that Microsoft will be giving OEMs support for a minimum of 12 months for XP on low-cost laptops, no matter how aggressive the timeframe. If you need help trying to figure out why Microsoft might want to bend over backwards to keep Windows on low-cost laptops, just recall the EEE PC's success with Linux.
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